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Impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy prices. What are the potential inflation scenarios?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine – what will it mean for the Latvian economy?
The inflation forecast is revised upwards, but the annual rates to decelerate next year
Why are lending rates in the Baltics higher than elsewhere in the euro area?

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2.1%

According to the flash estimate by the CSB, GDP was 2.1% higher in the first quarter in quarter-on-quarter terms.

Inflation GDP JOB SEEKERS RATE (%) Current account

Inflation (year-on-year; %; HICP)

GDP at constant prices (adjusted data; year-on-year; %)

Registered unemployment rate (% of economically active population)

Current account balance (% of GDP)

All

Macroeconomic Indicators

EXPERT'S COMMENT

Ieva Opmane

Economist, Latvijas Banka

Andrejs Bessonovs

Economist, Latvijas Banka

Inflation in Latvia has surged due to global energy prices. Next year, the increase in energy prices will follow a downward path in the second half of 2022, reducing the upward pressure on the inflation.

EXPERT'S COMMENT

Agnese Rutkovska

Economist, Latvijas Banka

Household spending abroad and stocked up warehouses contributed to deceleration of GDP growth in the third quarter.

EXPERT'S COMMENT

Oļegs Krasnopjorovs

Economist, Latvijas Banka

Just like in spring when some places are still completely covered in snow, while elsewhere the first green shoots are already piercing through, the recently released Central Statistical Bureau's labour force survey data on the first quarter of 2021 also contain some indications of a frozen labour market as well as the first heralds of the expected economic recovery.

EXPERT'S COMMENT

Guntis Kalniņš

Economist, Latvijas Banka

In the first quarter of 2021, the value of exports of goods increased by 8.2%, with the biggest contribution coming from the "hot" exports of products of wood, driven by high demand in the construction sector and the related increase in prices.

2021 IV	1.7
2021 V	2.6
2021 VI	2.7
2021 VII	2.8
2021 VIII	3.6
2021 IX	4.7
2021 X	6.0
2021 XI	7.4
2021 XII	7.9
2022 I	7.5
2022 II	8.8
2022 III	11.5
2022 IV	13.1

2020 Q4	-1.7
2021 Q1	-0.4
2021 Q2	10.1
2021 Q3	4.8
2021 Q4	2.7

2021 IV	7.9
2021 V	7.6
2021 VI	7.4
2021 VII	7.1
2021 VIII	6.5
2021 IX	6.0
2021 X	6.0
2021 XI	6.4
2021 XII	6.7
2022 I	6.9
2022 II	6.8
2022 III	6.6
2022 IV	6.5

2020 Q4	7.8
2021 Q1	-1.9
2021 Q2	-6.4
2021 Q3	-5.7
2021 Q4	2.4

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Impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy prices. What are the potential inflation scenarios?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine – what will it mean for the Latvian economy?

The inflation forecast is revised upwards, but the annual rates to decelerate next year

Why are lending rates in the Baltics higher than elsewhere in the euro area?

Inflation (year-on-year; %; HICP)

GDP at constant prices (adjusted data; year-on-year; %)

Registered unemployment rate (% of economically active population)

Current account balance (% of GDP)

EXPERT'S COMMENT

EXPERT'S COMMENT

EXPERT'S COMMENT

EXPERT'S COMMENT

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