Flash estimates of Latvijas Banka

The flash estimates of Latvijas Banka (henceforth OMA) are the flash estimates of the current month’s Latvian inflation and the current quarter’s Latvian gross domestic product (GDP). OMA are obtained using the statistical models of Latvijas Banka. OMA are not the official macroeconomic projections of Latvijas Banka and are intended solely to track the current developments in main macroeconomic variables.

Inflation

annual rate of change; %, not seasonally adjusted

Inflation is an annual rate of change of Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Eurostat publishes HICP flash estimate at the end of the month. The Central Statistical Bureau publishes full HICP release 8-10 working days after reporting month. Inflation flash estimate of Latvijas Banka or Inflation OMA is obtained using Latvijas Banka's STIP model. The STIP model exploits statistical correlations between HICP and its main drivers, such as wages, global food commodity prices and crude oil prices. The STIP model is described in detail in Latvijas Banka's Working Paper No. 1/2020.

Gross Domestic Product

quarterly changes; %; seasonally adjusted

The Central Statistical Bureau publishes the flash estimate of GDP 30 days after the end of the quarter and full release 60 days after the end of the quarter. GDP flash estimate of Latvijas Banka or GDP OMA is obtained using Latvijas Banka's dynamic factor model. The model uses statistical correlations among GDP, industrial production, retail sales, exports, economic sentiment index and value-added tax revenues.

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