The retail trade turnover in October continued to decrease moderately
The retail trade turnover in October continued to decrease moderately, shrinking 1.3% over September. That was determined by dropping income at the population’s disposal, and, naturally, the turnover of non-food items decreased more rapidly than that of food items.
The consumer mood index has markedly improved in November compared to October, but its level is still very low and inadequate to expect an improvement in trade in the near future. Notable positive changes in this area are expected only after they have reached the population’s wallets in the form of increased incomes. Here the main impulse for the stabilization of the economy can be expected from export growth where, in certain groups of export goods, positive trends have been observed for several months. It will take time for the recovery in exports, along with new jobs, investment and state budget income, to stabilize the domestic demand as well.
Even though in November and December shops are likely to be abuzz with shoppers for presents and items for the holiday meal, this increase will find no reflection in the seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover data and thus a downward trend or fluctuations around zero can be expected in the coming months.