Retail turnover dynamics still unstable

After a rather fluctuating dynamic in the previous months, the retail turnover in May grew 2.0% over April, according to seasonally adjusted data. The rate of annual growth, at 0.7%, has once again turned positive according to calendar-adjusted data. Including car sales (dropped 0.2%), which are not included in the official retail data (yet have a significant effect on overall trade), the retail turnover in May has grown 1.5%, with the rate of annual growth at 10.5%. Thus the drop in the car sales turnover this month had only an insignificant negative effect on the overall trade statistics.

The retail turnover of food products in retail sales enterprises dropped 0.5%, whereas in the non-food retail sales enterprises it grew by 3.2% under the impact of the turnover growth in the group of furniture and household items group as well as of the increase in sales volumes of pharmaceuticals. Compared to the previous month (seasonally adjusted data), the sales of computers and peripheral equipment, household electrical appliances, and used goods were also on the rise. The most important drops were observed in the trading of audio and video appliances, textile products and clothing as well as sporting goods. The trend observed in the previous two months, dropping fuel sales volumes, was not observed. In May they grew by 3.8%.

The consumer confidence indicator surveyed by the European Commission improved for a second consecutive month (3.5 points in April, 5.0 in May). This improvement has taken place owing to a significantly better consumer outlook on both the possible development of the economy and their personal finances in the next twelve months. It must be noted, however, that consumer confidence is beginning to recover from a very low level (confidence is lower only in the construction sector) and may not yet be reflected in an improvement of retail data. Albeit at a more moderate level, trader confidence also continued to grow. Traders predict that the overall situation in the industry will improve within the next three months, which will also have a positive effect on the number of people employed in the industry.

An unstable retail turnover dynamics is likely to continue in the coming months, with a positive contribution of a gradual improvement of the labour market and a negative one from consumer caution in spending as a result of political events and the less than clear budget consolidation. This is evidenced by the already mentioned confidence indicators where consumer evaluation of possible large purchases deteriorated significantly in May.

Fig1.  Contribution to the real monthly retail growth, percentage points, seasonally adj.