An annual retail turnover increase for the first time since 2008

According to the information of the Central Statistical Agency, retail turnover in August, by seasonally adjusted data, grew 1.0% month-on-month, which was a 4.6% increase year-on-year (data adjusted to the number of working days). The greatest annual increase was registered in the sales of textile products, household electrical goods as well as retail by post and used goods. The greatest drop in turnover was observed for the sales of audio and video recordings, cosmetics and toiletries as well as for retail in food shops.

Including automobile sales in retail, the annual increase has reached 8.4% (data adjusted to the number of working days) and monthly increase 1.8 percent.

In the next few months the slight optimism in the retail industry is expected to dwindle, which is supported by the weak results of the confidence indicators of recent months. According to the confidence indicators evaluated by the European Commission, the assessment of the situation in trade worsened by 3.4 percentage points. Retailers expect a lesser number of orders in the next three months as well.

The drafting process of the 2011 budget may also bring adjustments to the mood of the population. Since the character of the consolidation measures is not known, both households and traders have assumed a wait-and-see position which is likely to be reflected in the retail trade data as early as the next few months.  A negative effect on household budgets is also expected from the imminent heating season. After the onset of the heating season, the financial means at the disposal of households will become smaller after paying the heating bills and that will have a substantial effect on the retail trade dynamics and mood.

It should also be noted that the volatility of the retail turnover has been lately augmented by the possible price increases for certain groups of products. Although there are objective reasons why the prices of one category of goods or another may rise in the medium term, there is no ground to discuss an overall rise in the average price rate. It is possible that "buckwheat price speculations" and similar rumours cause households to develop larger stores of the respective goods, but it will also mean a reduced demand for these products in the future until the stores have been depleted.